Public Opinion about the Current Presidential election

Will Reformism Finally Rise in 2024? A futuristic study

Abstract: The Empire of the olden days

Iran, the Persian Empire of olden days, finds itself at a crucial point in time where it has to choose between reform and reaction. The Iranian political topography has been violent over the years due to revolution, social upheavals, sanctions as well as international pressure; thus, it is expected that there will be an earth-shaking change in 2024. In Tehran streets whispers can be heard carried by winds signifying that some things might soon change forever there too – young educated people who are increasingly becoming disillusioned with current state affairs will not rest until they have taken back control over how things are run within this Islamic Republic which was established more than four decades ago. Still, those hardliners who won power through elections based on their conservative ideology have become stubborn enough not only defend but also refuse meeting demands posed by a nation which seems tired of waiting any longer for desirable changes to take place. With every tick of the clock drawing closer towards one year known for its significant elections globally, all eyes turn towards Iran while holding their breaths because if carelessly handled then everything could easily crumble down leading into conflict zones worldwide like never seen before since World War II ended – what would happen next if these reformists did not manage winning big enough reforms during such an eventful election period aimed at opening up more spaces cooperation or when they fail again like always before? These are some thoughts pondered upon critically in our current evaluation; thus we shall investigate various sides involved around this hotly contested affair so that readers may get better understanding about what lies ahead for this nation; come 2024!

1. A Brief Introduction to Iranian Political Backstage[1]

Unlike most nations’ governments, -which tend to be either democratic or theocratic-, Iran has often been both. The system is best described as a mix between theology and democracy with various degrees of open and closed tendencies over time where competing factions jostle for power within each other’s spheres. While demanding more social freedom and other civil liberties have been met with stiff resistance from conservatives who want to keep intact the ideals upon which their revolution was founded according to history books written by victors – hardliner clerics who believe that any compromise with tradition will lead only downfall- this year’s sudden and non-planned presidential election could decide everything: whether reformists win big at last or if they fail yet again because hardliners still hold sway? Regardless though there are implications not just in terms national politics but also internationally as well regional future relationships around Middle Eastern states, too.

It is almost impossible to predict a dominant political zeitgeist to take over the socio-political ambiance of the Iranian society; considering the current unofficial discourses on social media platforms or the debates one can hear on a regular basis (while walking in crowded spots in Tehran, Isfahan or Mashhad) it even makes it hard to believe that some portion of the society is willing to take part in the election or not?[2] That is a vital issue to be discussed upon in this short research.

1-2) Is Reformism Popular in Iran 2024?  

As 2024 elections coming, Tehran streets are starting to hear winds of change. The reformist movement that seemed like a faraway goal until recently has been gaining speed powered by the hopes of young and educated Iranians. These individuals are tired of the nation’s stagnant economy and repressive social policies; they want their community to be more open and inclusive. In response to this dissatisfaction with Iranian life – which is currently expressed through politicians such as Hassan Rouhani or Mohammad Khatami – who promise them an economic revival; transparency promotion as well as loosening strict morals imposed by Islamism in power since 1979 revolution.

Also credited with bringing popularity for reformists among masses is social media dominance where users can vent their frustrations openly then link up with others sharing same ideals hence building critical mass required for successful movements. A case in point was when Iran Protests trended globally on various platforms back in 2019 thus showing that this campaign had ability not only to organize itself but also amplify voices all over Iran against status quo. With less than a year away from another election cycle which could see establishment change hands if momentum continues building behind these groups one wonders whether hardliners will yield ground easily or fight tooth-and-nail knowing too well what defeat means in terms losing grip over power forever.

However, this is a question of high importance: how people conceive Reformism in Iran 2024?

Discourse are divided in two groups: those who are in an abject state of “hopelessness” vis a vis the political changes from bottom to up[3], this group is mostly consist of Z generation who reads the events from a postmodernism perspective[4]; the other group is the hardliners who technically deny the “notion” of reform introduced by this party.

The world is not unaware of the political goings-on in Iran at this time; economic sanctions have been credited to be the most powerful weapon there is against it, for an economy that has already been on a downward spiral for many years now due to various factors, this last straw really did put them over the edge. Since President Trump pulled out of what was known as JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) back in 2018 and re-enacted some more sanctions, they have had quite a hard time dealing with these changes.

It’s safe to say that life has become harder than ever before for ordinary Iranians who are

battling against unemployment rates which soar into double figures; inflation rates running wild at almost fifty percent month-on-month increases; wages being paid late if not at all meaning people cannot afford basic necessities like food let alone anything else; whilst also witnessing their money lose value every hour – never mind day! The once flourishing middle-class has taken quite a hit too with most families having no choice but live hand-to-mouth existence.

Infrastructure[5] within this war-torn nation suffers greatly under such circumstances too; so it’s no surprise when we hear reports about hospitals lacking vital medicines needed for operations or schools having sometimes some lab materials available because there simply aren’t any left due to shortage caused by economic sanctions.

With everything coming to a standstill and nothing moving forward one can’t help but ask whether or not there will ever be light at the end of this long vague tunnel – especially as hardliners continue tightening their grip on power while promising reforms they clearly have no intention of making; public opinion at the moment seeks one united request: reform for a better socio-economic condition; a request needing immediate treatment.[6]

Author: Ellias Aghili Dehnavi

References:

1.  ماه‌زاده, ج. (2008, September 7). تاریخ سیاسی ایران. دیپلماسی ایرانی. http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/2625/%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AE-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86
2. Complementary statistic data have been provided in this article 
3.   هم‌میهن, ر. (2022, December 4). تغییر از بالا یـا پایین؟. هم‌میهن. https://hammihanonline.ir/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-18/2792-%D8%AA%D8%BA%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%86
4.   Their reading can sometimes be influenced through the western “paradise” propaganda
5.   https://dolat.ir/detail/373405
6.   فصاحت, س. (2024, June 24). درخواست های مردم از رئیس جمهور آینده چیست؟. ایسنا. https://www.isna.ir/news/1403040402324/%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A2%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%DA%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA

[1] ماه‌زاده, ج. (2008, September 7). تاریخ سیاسی ایران. دیپلماسی ایرانی. http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/2625/%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AE-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86

[2] Complementary statistic data have been provided in this article  

[3] هم‌میهن, ر. (2022, December 4). تغییر از بالا یـا پایین؟. هم‌میهن. https://hammihanonline.ir/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-18/2792-%D8%AA%D8%BA%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%86

[4] Their reading can sometimes be influenced through the western “paradise” propaganda

[5] https://dolat.ir/detail/373405

[6] فصاحت, س. (2024, June 24). درخواست های مردم از رئیس جمهور آینده چیست؟. ایسنا. https://www.isna.ir/news/1403040402324/%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A2%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%DA%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA