A Political-Psychology Survey of the Key Candidates: Iran’s Upcoming 2024 Election

In the previous blog article, we delved into the political-historical background of one of the most controversial figures of the Iran’s upcoming presidential election, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; we concluded that Mr. Ahmadinejad has proven to be an unpredictable face concerning socio-political issues; specially with his “coined” political school (Baharism) and his circle of advisors who have proven to be “strange and deviant “non-conformists; considering the current socio-economic condition of the country, the pro-status quo candidates might have a better chance of winning any upcoming election; one of these candidates, the previous mayor of Tehran, a Dr. -pilot and a keen politician, is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf! The man who never gives up!

  1. Who is he?[1]

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf[2] is a seasoned politician with a storied past that has left many wondering if he has the mettle to walk into the Pastor. A former mayor of Tehran, Ghalibaf’s name is synonymous with construction and civil services, specially having been involved in some of the most prominent moments in Iran’s recent history. With a career spanning over three decades, he has worn many hats – from a young Revolutionary Guard to a high-ranking official in the Islamic Republic’s political hierarchy. Ghalibaf’s/ Qalibaf’s political past is marked by periods of both popularity and notoriety, making him a polarizing figure in Iranian political arena. As the presidential election draws near, the question on everyone’s lips is: can this enigmatic figure, with his complex web of alliances and rivalries, convincingly make the case for the presidency? The hypothesis will be well discussed after going through his short “practical” biography.[3]

Amin Ahouei – https://tn.ai/2702078 CC BY 4.0

It all started from Iran-Iraq War, where he distinguished himself as a brave and capable military commander[4]. His bravery and tactical prowess caught the attention of the Iranian leadership, and he was soon appointed as the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the “Khorasan province”. This marked the beginning of his meteoric rise, as he leveraged his military credentials to build a strong political base. His subsequent appointment as the Mayor of Tehran in 2005 further solidified his position, allowing him to build a reputation as a pragmatic and effective administrator. Throughout his career, Ghalibaf has demonstrated an uncanny ability to navigate the complex web of Iranian politics, forging alliances and building relationships that have served him well in his quest for power. As he sets his sights on the presidency, Ghalibaf’s extensive experience and cunning political instincts make him a formidable contender; a quick look through his background, provides us with some vital facts

A-1) Different Positions, one man

A-2) Facts and Notions[5]

  • MBGH has a rich and long military background; this history is like a double-edged sword for variety of reasons, at one point, he can win over the conservatism front but at the other side of the pole, we have the public opinion that looks at his candidacy with caution.
  • MBGH is swinging between different poles of the political horizons of the society; this “swing movement” makes it difficult -and to some extend impossible- for the mass population to attribute him to one particular front.
  •  He seems to be a pragmatic figure but does the popular opinion perceive the same? One answer to this question can date back to his “mayor ship” epoch (For instance Niyayesh tunnel, Tohid Tunnel, these were some of the projects that the ordinary people of society attribute to Ghalibaf)[6].
  • There are controversies regarding the financial activities of Ghlibaf; during 2017 presidential debates, Hasan Rouhani disclosed some information in that regard.
  •  

B) Concluding Analysis

Finally, and most importantly, we should know that the political psychology of the candidates affect the Public Opinion’s mind-set in drastic but not explicit ways;  PO is of high importance when it comes to such prominent events like presidential elections; perception of the public can affect the direction of the votes; there are some red flags for people when they study a candidate of presidency in the “modern” Iran; for instance, one is their clarity in the financial affairs; in the current economic situation of the country, pragmatism for the heart of the society can be translated into the capacity of the candidates to manage the current state of affairs and guide it towards improvement ; another important issue is internet ( speed of the internet, access to the internet, free access to some international platforms) these are some crucial factors that people read about when they go to the election poles; now the question is that will Ghalibaf pass these surveys done by the people? We have to wait and see.

Author: Ellias Aghili Dehnavi


References:

  1.  جهان, F. |. ف. |. ا. ر. ا. و. (2024b, June 11). کدام قالیباف کاندیدا شده است؟. Fararu | فرارو | اخبار روز ایران و جهان. https://fararu.com/fa/news/743975/%DA%A9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA
  2.   نیوز, م. (2024, June 11). محمدباقر قالیباف کیست؟ +سوابق و برنامه ها. مشرق نیوز. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1611307/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7
  3.   ایمنا خبرگزاری شهری ایران, IMNA News Agency. (2024, June 9). محمدباقر قالیباف کیست؟ + بیوگرافی و سوابق. ایمنا. https://www.imna.ir/news/761546/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%88%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%81%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82
  4. EntekhabIr, پ. خ. ت. ا. |. (2024, June 10). قالیباف می گوید تا جایی که بشود با دولت مردان فعلی کار را ادامه می دهیم / الویتمان این هست که در اداره دولت شوک به این مجموعه وارد نکنیم. پایگاه خبری تحلیلی انتخاب | Entekhab.ir. https://www.entekhab.ir/fa/news/790991/%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%DA%AF%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%AF%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D9%88%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D9%87-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D9%86%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%85
  5.   سوابق کاری کاندیداهای ریاست جمهوری ایران؛ قالیباف و جلیلی. (n.d.). https://www.aa.com.tr/fa/%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%88-%D8%AC%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C/3245387
  6.   خبرگزاری خبرآنلاین – آخرین اخبار ایران و جهان, Khabaronline. (n.d.). محمد باقر قالیباف – خبرآنلاین. خبرآنلاین. https://www.khabaronline.ir/tag/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF+%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1+%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81

[1] جهان, F. |. ف. |. ا. ر. ا. و. (2024b, June 11). کدام قالیباف کاندیدا شده است؟. Fararu | فرارو | اخبار روز ایران و جهان. https://fararu.com/fa/news/743975/%DA%A9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA

[2] نیوز, م. (2024, June 11). محمدباقر قالیباف کیست؟ +سوابق و برنامه ها. مشرق نیوز. https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1611307/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7

[3] ایمنا خبرگزاری شهری ایران, IMNA News Agency. (2024, June 9). محمدباقر قالیباف کیست؟ + بیوگرافی و سوابق. ایمنا. https://www.imna.ir/news/761546/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%88%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%81%DB%8C-%D9%88-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82

[4] EntekhabIr, پ. خ. ت. ا. |. (2024, June 10). قالیباف می گوید تا جایی که بشود با دولت مردان فعلی کار را ادامه می دهیم / الویتمان این هست که در اداره دولت شوک به این مجموعه وارد نکنیم. پایگاه خبری تحلیلی انتخاب | Entekhab.ir. https://www.entekhab.ir/fa/news/790991/%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%DA%AF%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%AF%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D9%88%DA%A9-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D9%87-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D9%86%DA%A9%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%85

[5] سوابق کاری کاندیداهای ریاست جمهوری ایران؛ قالیباف و جلیلی. (n.d.). https://www.aa.com.tr/fa/%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%82-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%88-%D8%AC%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C/3245387

[6] خبرگزاری خبرآنلاین – آخرین اخبار ایران و جهان, Khabaronline. (n.d.). محمد باقر قالیباف – خبرآنلاین. خبرآنلاین. https://www.khabaronline.ir/tag/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF+%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B1+%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81